Data reveals possible new peak in property prices in 2024

Aussies looking to buy property could expect to see prices hit a new peak by early next year, new data reveals.

The latest PropTrack Market Insight Report has found if property prices continue to grow at the same pace as it has been over the past quarter, then the new peak could be within the next six months. 

PropTrack senior economist Eleanor Creagh said the report showed stronger market conditions are becoming more widespread in 2023.

“Housing demand is stronger, likely bolstered by the surge in net overseas migration, as well as very tight rental markets,” Ms Creagh said. 

  

Aussies looking to buy property could expect to see prices hit a new peak by early next year, new data reveals. 

The latest PropTrack Market Insight Report has found if property prices continue to grow at the same pace as it has been over the past quarter, then the new peak could be within the next six months. 

PropTrack senior economist Eleanor Creagh said the report showed stronger market conditions are becoming more widespread in 2023.

“Housing demand is stronger, likely bolstered by the surge in net overseas migration, as well as very tight rental markets,” Ms Creagh said. 

“Given limited new stock is coming to market, buyer interest is being concentrated, which is underpinning home prices and offsetting the downward pressure from interest rate rises,” Ms Creagh said. 

“If the pace of price growth recorded over the past quarter continues, national property prices will surpass their prior peak by January 2024.” 

It comes after the Reserve Bank hiked rates to an 11-year high, with a warning there could be more hikes on the way.

The central bank increased the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.10 per cent – the highest level since April 2012 – when it met on Tuesday. 

It means the average borrower with a $500,000 home loan before the RBA began its aggressive tightening cycle last May could now be paying $1,134, or 49 per cent, more a month. 

Ms Creagh warned should interest rates continue to rise – as it did in June – recovery in the market is expected to slow even further. 

“Though, interest rates are closer to their peak than not, and the shock of rate rises has lessened,” Ms Creagh said. 

“Population growth, tight rental market conditions and a housing shortfall are also expected to remain. 

“If stronger demand holds up against the expected slowing of the economy, most capital city markets would return to positive annual price growth in the coming months. 

The Prop Track data stated the possible peak in January 2024 follows a four per cent decline in property prices in 2022 from their March 2022 peak to December 2022 low. 

Since their December low, national home prices have climbed 1.55 per cent, and are now just 2.6 per cent below their peak, according to the data. 

If prices in Sydney continue to grow at the same pace – having already gone up 3.0 per cent from the low in November 2022 – then the peak could arrive by December 2023. 

Meanwhile, Brisbane could be on track to surpass their April 2022 peak by September 2023, while Canberra could set a new record by November 2024 if growth continues at its current pace. 

House prices in Adelaide and Perth also reached a new peak in May, having increased by 2.6 per cent and 3.1 per cent so far this year, respectively. 

The report found if property price growth is maintained, both capital cities will continue to hit new price peaks throughout 2023. 

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